Stat Boy Saturday: How Much Does Winter Weather Really Decrease Offense?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he looks at whether the winter weather (alliteration!) really hurts offenses, or if it's just a myth. You remember this game. You know, the one where Tom Brady and Randy Moss killed their owners after lifting them through many an undefeated regular season? Or this one? The one where waiver wire hero Derek Anderson put up a stinker in a blizzard? I owned both of them last year. Anderson's terrible performance knocked me out of one league. As for Brady ... well, let's say I didn't even make the playoffs with him. And Frank Gore. And Wes Welker. And Ryan Grant. Uh, but I did get stuck with Lee Evans and Donald Driver. (I had the fourth-most points scored but finished in eighth place. Head-to-head will do that to you.) Back on topic. It's no surprise that Lambeau Field often has two or three snow games per year, as does Gilette Stadium in Foxborough. And because the Georgia Dome is, um, a dome, it should yield higher scores than usual. But the key word is "should." The question is, does the Georgia Dome really increase scoring, and does Lambeau Field and other cold-weather stadia lower scoring and other measurements of offense? I ripped off of MLB's Park Factors, which in its simplest form is equal to home runs per game (by both teams) divided by road runs per game (by both teams). So if the Louisville Sluggers score four runs per game and give up five at home, but score five and give up five on the road, their park factor would be equal to .9 (nine divided by ten). I used a more complex method, which is described in the "How I Calculate PF" section here. I did this for points scored, passing yards, and rushing yards, using week-by-week data for all December games since 2003. Conventional wisdom says that the cold weather should lower passing but increase rushing (due to the fact that both teams wouldn't be able to pass). Is that true? Here's the data.

NFL Stadium Factors

Team	Stadium	Point	Pass	Rush
Baltimore Ravens	M&T Bank Stadium	1.20	1.04	1.09
Houston Texans	Reliant Stadium	1.14	1.13	1.01
Minnesota Vikings	H.H.H. Metrodome	1.10	1.06	1.04
Atlanta Falcons	Georgia Dome	1.10	0.94	0.88
St. Louis Rams	Edward Jones Dome	1.06	1.14	1.32
Miami Dolphins	Dolphin Stadium	1.06	1.18	1.15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Raymond James Stadium	1.05	0.89	1.07
San Diego Chargers	Qualcomm Stadium	1.05	1.07	1.07
Philadelphia Eagles	Lincoln Financial Field	1.04	1.07	1.07
Seattle Seahawks	Candlestick Park	1.01	0.90	0.91
New York Jets/Giants	Giants Stadium/Meadowlands	1.01	0.94	0.99
Pittsburgh Steelers	Heinz Field	1.00	0.99	1.03
Indianapolis Colts	RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium	1.00	1.09	1.01
Washington Redskins	FedExField	1.00	1.04	1.07
Oakland Raiders	Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum	1.00	1.16	1.00
Buffalo Bills	Ralph Wilson Stadium	0.99	0.86	1.02
Detroit Lions	Ford Field	0.99	0.99	0.91
Dallas Cowboys	Texas Stadium	0.99	0.98	0.84
San Francisco 49ers	Qwest Field	0.99	1.02	0.85
Arizona Cardinals	University of Phoenix Stadium	0.99	0.98	0.96
Chicago Bears	Soldier Field	0.98	1.00	1.16
Tennessee Titans	LP Field	0.97	1.05	1.20
Kansas City Chiefs	Arrowhead Stadium	0.97	0.94	0.89
Denver Broncos	Invesco Field (Mile High)	0.96	0.98	0.94
Cincinnati Bengals	Paul Brown Stadium	0.95	0.91	0.96
New Orleans Saints	Louisiana Superdome	0.94	1.06	1.08
Cleveland Browns	Cleveland Browns Stadium	0.93	0.90	0.89
Jacksonville Jaguars	Jacksonville Municipal Stadium	0.93	0.96	1.00
Green Bay Packers	Lambeau Field	0.90	0.88	1.04
New England Patriots	Gillette Stadium	0.90	1.02	1.04
Carolina Panthers	Bank of America Stadium	0.89	0.98	0.89

Methodology note: Two teams, the Cardinals and Colts, moved into new stadia during five-year sample used. I discarded this fact, because I was more trying to see if the weather, not the stadium, had an effect. The Browns, Packers, and Patriots are all near the bottom of the points factor, as they should be. But the Panthers last in the league? Surely this had to be a result of an abnormally-high road point scoring trend, right? I realized that with the low sample size (only 24 games worth for all teams, but 52 for the Giants/Jets), there must be a bias in the data. To fix this I switched the road points/passing yards/rushing yards per game with the leave averages over this time, which was 42 points, 409 passing yards, and 245 rushing yards. Here are the adjusted factors.

NFL Adjusted Stadium Factors

Team	Stadium	Point	Pass	Rush
Atlanta Falcons	Georgia Dome	1.07	0.99	1.05
Seattle Seahawks	Qwest Field	1.05	1.00	1.02
Minnesota Vikings	H.H.H. Metrodome	1.05	1.05	0.97
Tennessee Titans	LP Field	1.05	1.03	1.00
Kansas City Chiefs	Arrowhead Stadium	1.04	1.04	1.01
St. Louis Rams	Edward Jones Dome	1.04	1.03	1.03
Indianapolis Colts	RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium	1.04	1.08	0.96
Baltimore Ravens	M&T Bank Stadium	1.03	0.99	0.97
Arizona Cardinals	University of Phoenix Stadium	1.03	1.03	0.91
Houston Texans	Reliant Stadium	1.02	0.98	1.01
San Diego Chargers	Qualcomm Stadium	1.02	1.00	1.01
Philadelphia Eagles	Lincoln Financial Field	1.02	1.02	0.98
Detroit Lions	Ford Field	1.02	1.04	0.95
Miami Dolphins	Dolphin Stadium	1.01	1.02	0.96
Cincinnati Bengals	Paul Brown Stadium	1.01	0.98	1.01
Denver Broncos	Invesco Field (Mile High)	1.00	1.00	1.04
Buffalo Bills	Ralph Wilson Stadium	1.00	0.88	1.04
San Francisco 49ers	Candlestick Park	0.99	1.02	0.95
New York Jets/Giants	Giants Stadium/Meadowlands	0.99	0.94	1.01
Dallas Cowboys	Texas Stadium	0.99	1.05	0.94
Oakland Raiders	Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum	0.98	1.01	0.96
Pittsburgh Steelers	Heinz Field	0.98	0.98	1.01
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Raymond James Stadium	0.97	0.92	1.02
Washington Redskins	FedExField	0.97	0.97	0.99
Jacksonville Jaguars	Jacksonville Municipal Stadium	0.96	0.96	1.02
New Orleans Saints	Louisiana Superdome	0.96	1.02	0.94
Chicago Bears	Soldier Field	0.96	0.98	0.98
Green Bay Packers	Lambeau Field	0.96	0.94	1.00
New England Patriots	Gillette Stadium	0.94	0.99	0.93
Carolina Panthers	Bank of America Stadium	0.92	0.98	0.93
Cleveland Browns	Cleveland Browns Stadium	0.90	0.92	1.06

What do you know, the Panthers are still at the bottom of the list. I would call that an aberration¹. Four of the bottom five teams are all in snowy, cold-weather portions of the U.S. Four of the top seven teams are all in domes. See a trend? Yes, the wintry weather does affect offenses, especially in the selected cold-weather stadia. If you have Braylon Edwards, don't be afraid to bench him for someone such as Anthony Gonzalez during the fantasy playoffs. When Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte put up sub-par games when the Packers and Bears face each other in Week 16, don't say I didn't warn you. ____ ¹I update a list of these stadium factors weekly on my Web site, using data from 2005 through the current week. The latest edition has the Panthers exactly average in the points factor. We would never shoot ourselves in the leg. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

Week 13 Name Calling

Name Calling is our almost-weekly feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. Ahh yes, Thanksgiving. A great time of the year. Except for football, especially this year. Could we please have at least one competitive game? All three games, blowouts, though I wouldn't expect anything less from the Lions; they're part of the holiday tradition—turkey, stuffing, and the Lions getting creamed. Shame on you Arizona. You were the best shot to give us a good game. But no, you failed. Can't you see that I'm trying to win one million dollars? Ranting aside, I hope everyone had a safe and happy Thanksgiving. Who You Gonna Call Matt Ryan/QB Atlanta: After two straight weeks of touchdown-less football, you know Matty Ice is itching to get back on the proverbial horse. And what better time to do so than against the Chargers, who rank last in the league in pass defense? Ryan has had at least 248 yards in four of his last five weeks; a couple of touchdowns this week would make him fantasy gold for owners. Lance Moore/WR New Orleans: Talk about riding a hot streak. Moore, a big piece in the Saints' offensive puzzle, has had nearly 300 receiving yards and four touchdowns his past three games. You do the math. Drew Brees lit up the the Bucs in Week One, throwing for 343 yards and a couple of scores; he's a good bet to do so again. Ted Ginn Jr./WR Miami: Not too often I suggest starting him. But I'm going against the grain this time. With Greg Camarillo done for the year due to a sprained knee, Ginn is the Dolphins most viable threat at wide receiver. Couple that with a weak Rams' pass defense and Chad Pennington coming off of a big performance last week against rival New England, Ginn could be huge. Side note: Anthony Fasano is also starter-worthy this week. On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always call, using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to start some dude over LDT): RBs against Detroit and Kansas City, WRs against Miami and Seattle, QBs against Detroit and San Diego. Who You Not Gonna Call Willie Parker/RB Pittsburgh: I managed to put my Steelers bias aside, for this week anyway. I simply don't trust the Steelers running game. Parker couldn't do anything last week against a Bengals defense that got even worse as the game went on (they lost two DE's, Robert Geathers and Frosty Rucker), and I can't see a reverse in that trend against a Patriots defense that gave up just 3.5 YPC to Thomas Jones two weeks ago and a mere 37 yards to Ronnie Brown last week. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork will be licking his chops just as I'm sure he did around the Thanksgiving table. Not On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always caller ID check and ignore, once again using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to bench Drew Brees): RBs against the Ravens, Oakland WRs, QBs against Indianapolis
Keep going...

An Update On Our Dear Friend Gage Arnold

Wondering what that one random guy who posts like every other solar eclipse has been up to? This just popped up on his myspace:

Gage is going to see twilight Mood: joyus

Apparently our blog buddy is so caught up with a teenage girl fad that he can't even spell words correctly. Or give a few minutes a week to post and hand out some HAIRY's awards. Because he's too caught up with this. Bench that poor heart.
Keep going...

SJax, Reggie Bush: Will they play?

Steven Jackson: Jackson returned to practice Wednesday and should be good to go on Sunday against the Dolphins. On Monday coach Jim Haslett said of Jackson that he was "optimistic" Jackson would return. In his six games before he was injured against the Cardinals, Jackson had a per-game line of 24 touches, 128 total yards and 16.8 fantasy points. In Weeks Four through Seven, he averaged 158 yards, 23.8 fantasy points and had four touchdowns in those three games. Start him with confidence. Reggie Bush: After missing the past four games due to a left knee injury, Bush feels he can return this week, saying, "I definitely feel like this is the week." The Times-Picayune reported that his workload in practice has increased each of the past two week. In his first six games, before he was injured in the Carolina game, Bush was averaging a solid 20 touches for 100 yards and a score, along with 15 fantasy points per game. That said, Bush isn't a great start this week due to his matchup against the Buccaneers, who give up just 11.5 fantasy points to opposing running backs. He's a low-end No. 2 back and a good flex play this week. We think it's just a coincidence that two quarterbacks named "Brady" are out for the year. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

Weekend Recap: Week 12

I hate irrelevancy. Call it a pet peeve of mine. The unimportant, insignificant, and unnecessary. But enough about the Lions' offense. There was one thing I thought was truly irrelevant: North Dakota (no offense North Dakotans, all five of you). Seriously, what have they ever done? Heck, at least South Dakota gave us Mount Rushmore. I still argue that the only reason we bought that land was so that the border between Canada and the United States went straight across. "Was" is the operative word in that past sentence though. All that changed when I saw this box score. Yes, North Dakota defeated its arch rival South Dakota 34-31 in OT last Saturday. Nothing better than a little extra Saturday Dakota rivalry. I don't want to stray to far from the main point of this, irrelevancy. We at this humble blog don't give you the fat and grisle. We give you the meat. That's no different this week. - Chalk it up to inexperience. Brady Quinn was pretty awful against Houston, but hey, it's bound to happen. I don't agree with the benching of him (that's another can of worms), but he will remain the starter in Cleveland. - Ditto with Donovan McNabb, sans the inexperience excuse. Chalk his poor performance up to a really good Ravens defense. - Who would've thought the Chiefs/Bills game would be the highest scoring game of the week? Tony Gonzalez is surely glad to see the jump start to Kansas City's O. He's had 25 catches and three touchdowns the past three games. And being the most dependable target, you can bet he'll keep up a similar production the rest of the year. - Matt Cassel has been phenomenal as of late, throwing for another 400-yard game. He's matured really quickly and has made excellent decisions. Years sitting behind Tom Brady and being coached by "Hoodie" will do that to a player. You can be sure Cassel's wallet will thank them both of them in the offseason. - Jacksonville hasn't been able to get a consistent running game going all season. To sum it all up, look at Maurice Jones-Drew's rushing totals from Sunday. Three carries for four yards. Major risk and at this point, little reward. - The Colts' offense is finally banging on all cylinders. Big boosts to Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez. - If Clinton Portis can rush for nearly 150 yards hurt, I can't wait to see what he can again do when healthy. [I apologize for not putting up a Name Calling article on Friday. I was giving Tom Cruise acting lessons.] Al Roker is our hero. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

McNabb to Start Thursday

After being benched for Kevin Kolb at halftime after turning the ball over three times on Sunday, Eagles' quarterback Donovan McNabb will keep his starting job for next week. So have no fear; confidently start Donovan. Andy Reid knows that he'll bounce back and that good times are coming! Says the head coach: "Sometimes you have to step back to step forward in a positive way and Donovan will do that." McNabb owners really shouldn't be too worried at all. There's a very simple solution, as Reid explains. "I need to coach better. Donovan needs to play better and the guys around Donovan need to play better." If you think that all that is possible for the 5-5-1 Philadelphia squad, then keep DMac in your starting line up. And for the rest of the year? Well, McNabb's starting role seems secure. After being questioned about how the position will look for the rest of the season, Reid consulted with Terrell Owens and answered, "As I sit here right now, he's my quarterback," Reid said. "I'm telling you he's the starting quarterback. If I thought different, then I'd start the other guy." Well thanks for clearing that up Andy. We'll always be lovin' you the way we wanted too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

Stat Boy Saturday: How Do Backups-Turned-Starters Perform?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week, with the injury of Earnest Graham, he throws out the charts and graphs dealing with a backup's performance after he gains the starting role. It's that time of year again. Remember last year? Three running backs who produced as top-15 running backs, after their incumbent running back got injured—Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman in the case of Earnest Graham (whom himself might be one of those to allow a backup major opportunities this year); Brandon Jackson and Deshawn Wynn for Ryan Grant; and LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes for Justin Fargas. As just noted, Earnest Graham was placed on the IR and Warrick Dunn was subsequently proclaimed as the next pre-2008 LaDainian Tomlinson. Even I succumbed to this, choosing Dunn as my mancrush of the week (which haven't been posted yet, by the way). Conservatives will point to Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Kenneth Darby, and Antonio Pittman as reasons to why backups-turned-starters (BTS) never perform. Others will point to the three backs mentioned above, Graham, Grant, and Fargas. Who is right? And does the experience of a BTS even matter? Looking at every top-30 back's game-by-game logs from 2005-2007, I chose 22 running back whose game-by-game carries showed that they were a BTS. My criteria for choosing these 22 was that they must have single digit carries in a significant amount of games, or in three or more games. I then lowered that to 18, getting rid of those who had carry totals that fluctuated every week, and found 19 stretches of games in which they looked to go from a backup to a starter. One player had two of these, hence the 19 (which I'll simply call players and not stretches). Yes, it's selective sampling, but it beats just looking at games started or not started, because some players in timeshares tend to get a starting job midway through the year but have the number of attempts stay the same, which is not what I was looking for. Here are the charts showing the average amount of attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and fantasy points for each number game started. There were 17 players in the first game played, 17 in the second, 16 in the third, then 14, 11, 9, 7, 7, 6, 2, and finally 2 in the 11th game played. Realize that the 10th and 11th games should definitely not be looked at due to the low number of players, but I included them anyway. (For reference, the pre-starter per-game averages of these 19 players was 6.4 attempts, 30.2 rushing yards, 0.2 touchdowns, and 5.8 fantasy points.) Click on pictures for larger view. Although the graphs look inconsistent, check out what each dot actually means. The lowest average of attempts was just less than 16, yards just less than 70, and fantasy points just less than 12. I suggest a BTS's fourth game as the proving point. The fourth game had higher stats than every game before it except in fantasy points, where a BTS's second game had .13 more fantasy points than his fourth. So in conclusion, you can trust backups-turned-starters on your fantasy team. You won't know exactly what stats they'll put up, but you know that they'll put up No. 2 or even No. 1 running back numbers. That's more reason as to why Warrick Dunn will be the next pre-2008 LaDainian Tomlinson Earnest Graham. Ironic, huh? We'd take a homeless man to the movies, too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.
Keep going...

Earnest Graham's "Status in Question," Says Gruden

"His status for the rest of the season is very much in question. [I]t doesn't look like he'll play anytime soon." Those are the words of Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden regarding Earnest Graham, who was injured on his first carry in the Bucs' 19-13 win Sunday. The loss of Graham for possibly the rest of the year is huge for the Bucs and my two fantasy leagues in which I own him; the Fantasy Hall-of-Famer was a top-20 running back, even including his one-carry performance on Sunday. His absence paves the way for Warrick Dunn, who gained 118 total yards on 24 touches Sunday without Graham and is averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game on the year, and Cadillac Williams, who will be returning this week against the Lions. Dunn shoots up into a slot in the top-25 running backs with Graham gone. Right now I'd rank Caddy somewhere in the low 30's among RBs, but he's a huge risk/reward player and is a better waiver wire option than current backups such as Rudi Johnson and LeRon McLain. Think of Dunn as someone around the BenJarvus Green-Ellis range (before Sammy Morris comes back) and Caddy as someone near the Ricky Williams range.
Keep going...

Steven Jackson Already Ruled Out For Week 12

Remember this?

"So to be clear: I am playing. Be ready."

Jackson titled that blog post on his website, "Game On." He posted the message before week nine. We can officially add S-Jax to the ever growing list of unreliable sources of NFL news. Because 16 days later, Jackson is nowhere close to 100 percent. The Rams have already come out this week and said that he's not going to be ready for this next week's game. Clearly they are positive he's not good to go. And when a player is positively not good to go, it's not good. As in, that's my car rolling down the hill, not good. It gets worse. Jim Haslett said doctors "feel he should be out this week, and rest him, and see what happens next week." Translation: That's your fantasy team rolling out of the playoffs, not good. Don't expect anything from him anytime soon. No matter what his blog says. We knew that there were ties in the NFL. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

Weekend Recap: Week 11

I had to do a double-take. Nay, a triple take. I couldn't believe my ears. No, I hadn't just heard the phrase, "The Lions have won." It was this, Donovan McNabb's comments in his press conference after the Eagles 13-13 tie with the Bengals yesterday. One has to wonder, what did McNabb think happened when a game ended in a tie? Foosball tournament to determine the winner? What does this have to do with fantasy football? Nothing, nothing at all. I just couldn't hold back. - What more can you say about DeAngelo Wiiliams? In his past three games, he's had at least 100 yards rushing and a YPC (yards per carry) of 6.4, 7.4, and 8.6 each game. Get out the hose because this kid is on fire. (I apologize for that terrible joke.) Williams has firmly cemented himself as the No. 1 back in Carolina, and though Jonathan Stewart will get his fair share of carries, Williams is the main guy. - Let's stay with the Carolina theme, but this time on the opposite side of the spectrum. Jake Delhomme has been awful as of late, and it wasn't because of stiff competition. He's gone a combined 17-for-48 (35%), 180 yards, one TD, and five INTs against the Raiders and Lions. Bench him until he rebounds. - I recommended that you sit Steve Slaton this week. I was wrong, WAY wrong. He tore up a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense, and it appears that the rookie has caught a second wind. He's an average No. 2 RB or a great flex play from here on out. - At this point, it's overkill, but all should fear the Cardinals' passing attack. Another game, another offensive rout by Kurt Warner (395 passing yards), Anquan Boldin (186 receiving yards), and Larry Fitzgerald (151 yards receiving). If your opponent has any of these guys in his/her lineup, look out—it could be a rough week. - Ben Roethlisberger rebounded quite nicely yesterday against the Chargers. Granted, the Chargers have had a lot of issues in defending the pass this season, but Big Ben made good decisions and got the ball out of his hand quickly. That's a recipe for success, and that's exactly what happened to the Steelers (all controversy aside). - Matt Hasselbeck returned this week, but he's still at least another week away from making a real impact. He struggled, throwing three interceptions, and only Deion Branch had more than four receptions. It's hard to find fantasy gold in the desert ... er ... Seattle's offense. - One piece of injury news to pass along. An ankle injury is likely to keep Earnest Graham out for the season. Warrick Dunn will take over as the starter with Cadillac Williams slowly getting into the mix. Tosten stole my line. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

Stat Boy Saturday: Looking Ahead to the Playoffs, Part II

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he continues last week's article on fantasy playoff performances. It's good to know one of our own isn't falling into the trap. Read Tosten's News From Ball Street one more time. Now read it again. See any mention of fantasy playoff schedules? I'm sad to say that Ken Daube of ESPN.com is the most recent fantasy pundit to fall into the trap of looking ahead to stretch-run and fantasy playoff strength of schedule. As ESPN's own numbers guy, shouldn't he know better? Last week I looked at that topic and indeed found there was no correlation of regular season and fantasy playoff performance. I concluded that just because a team was poor against the pass from Weeks 1 through 12, doesn't necessarily mean that they'd do poor against the pass for the remainder of the year. This week, I did the same for individual players. In the sample I used the top 12 quarterbacks and the top 15 running backs and wideouts from 2005-2007 (not a huge sample size, I know, but the Web site from which I got this data had week-by-week game logs dating back to only 2005). Since some players don't have much playing time in Week 17, I used Weeks 1 through 11 as the "regular season" and 12 through 16 as the "fantasy playoffs." Here are the correlations for each position, in fantasy points scored*:

Fan. Points Correlation

Pos.	r	r2
QBs	0.30	0.09
RBs	0.23	0.05
WRs	-0.04	0.00

As with the previous article on this subject, there's no meaningful connection between regular season and fantasy playoff performance. Wide receivers' playoff production is essentially a pick-a-number-from-a-hat situation—you can't predict it whatsoever. Now, here're the correlations if you split each position up into three tiers—the top 12, middle 12, and bottom 12 in the 36-player quarterback sample, or equivalent to the QBs ranked Nos. 1 through 4, Nos. 5 through 8, and Nos. 9 through 12; and the top 15, middle 15, and bottom 15 in the 45-player running back and wide receiver sample, or equivalent to the top 5, etc. You might want to take this with a grain of salt as the sample size is so small, by the way.

Correlation of Tiers

Pos.	r	r2
	Top Tier
QBs	0.58	0.34
RBs	0.02	0.00
WRs	0.12	0.02
	Middle Tier
QBs	0.45	0.20
RBs	0.32	0.10
WRs	-0.12	0.01
	Bottom Tier
QBs	-0.25	0.06
RBs	-0.43	0.19
WRs	-0.48	0.23

One thing first: All positions in the bottom tier have a negative r. This is most likely due to all the players (such as Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Ladell Betts, et al) whose late-season performance vaulted them into the top 15. The highest correlations go to the quarterbacks, but an r-squared of .34 still is not very significant in predicting a player's playoff performance. What does all this mean, then? It means that there will still be those fantasy playoff flukes—Billy Volek circa 2004—that raise a borderline playoff team in your fantasy league to the championship. It means that there will still be those fantasy playoff busts—Chad Johnson Ocho Cinco Johnson circa 2007—that screw over the No. 1 seed to a first-round loss to the fourth-ranked team. It means that there will be fantasy experts that'll be berated for ranking Player A over Player B, after Player A throws three picks and no touchdowns and Player B throws for 300 yards and two scores, even though the stats say that it's extraordinarily difficult to predict a player's playoff performance. And it means that, once again, you'll lose before reaching the finals due to your No. 1 pick's putting up single-digit fantasy points for the first time all year. It happens.
Keep going...

Week 11 Name Calling

Name Calling is our almost-weekly feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. For once, I'm the one asking the questions. I've been watching college football all day on ESPN, and caught a glimpse of some of the NCAA games tonight. I know it's commonplace in college sports, but why do some powerhouses always play a Division III team that has more letters in its name than it will points by the time the games are said and done tonight (case in point, this school)? What do the coaches of the Division III team say when they're going against North Carolina and Duke? What kind of pep talk can the coach of SE Northern Maine State University give to his team? What answer is there? I'm sure you're looking for answers. Probably not to my question, but as to who you should start or sit this weekend. Who You Gonna Call Greg Camarillo/WR Miami: Ted Ginn Jr. is expected to be covered by Nnamdi Asomugha this week , leaving Camarillo to go against whatever No. 2 CB the Raiders can find out of the junkyard. Camarillo isn't going to have a 10-catch, 150-yard day, but he's a solid possession receiver who has had less than three catches a mere one time this season. Tyler Thigpen/QB Kansas City: Geez, I can hardly believe I'm saying this, but Thigpen isn't a bad option this week. After a horrendous start to the year, he's thrown for 250-plus yards and two-plus touchdowns in two of the last three weeks. Those games came against the Jets and Chargers, who rank 27th and 32nd in pass defense respectively. The Saints, who Kansas City faces this week, rank 26th in that category. They also won't have the services of Mike McKenzie, who is out for the season due to injury. DeAngelo Williams/RB Carolina: Hmm....new week, but the same reasons as last. The Lions are awful on defense, and with Delhomme in a bit of a funk, you can bet the Panthers will pound the ball a lot. On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always call, using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to start some dude over LDT): RBs against Detroit and Kansas City, WRs against Miami and Seattle, QBs against Detroit and San Diego. Who You Not Gonna Call Maurice Jones-Drew/RB Jacksonville: One defensive line you don't want to face is the Titans'. They're eighth in the NFL in run defense, giving up just over 90 yards per game. And although the Jags will be getting Brad Meester back this week, he'll get the ever so warm welcoming of facing Albert Haynesworth. Here's another fact: MJD has only ran over 70 yards three times this season. And the last time the Jags faced the Titans, he only ran for 13 yards on five carries. In a word, avoid. Steve Slaton/RB Houston: The matchup isn't bad, but it appears that Slaton has hit the "rookie wall"—that's when a rookie's body begins to break down because he isn't used to the constant beating each week and the longer season the NFL has compared to college. He isn't a horrible play, but there are safer options than him for this week. Not On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always caller ID check and ignore, once again using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to bench Drew Brees): RBs against the Ravens, Oakland WRs, QBs against Indianapolis
Keep going...

Straight Outta the Mancavedom: Week 11 Mancrushes

Is there a better activity in the world than chilling down in the man cave discussing football and girls? Red-blooded American males say it in unison, "No." Of course not. This is why every Thursday (or in this week's case, late Friday) FFWWH will let you all in on our own couch talk about football. And girls. And football playing girls.But mostly, football playing guys. So here's our week eleven bromances. Zach Fein They say rookie quarterbacks aren’t supposed to be fantasy worthy. Yet this year, two have debunked that myth—and one is my Week 11 mancrush. Matt Ryan has had 15-plus fantasy points in each of the past five games, with an average of 16.3 fantasy points. In that time frame he’s had 248 passing yards per game, with nine touchdowns and only three interceptions. This week Ryan faces the Broncos and their defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Fantasy gold. Alex Kozora Sure, most weeks our mancrushes are someone fairly obvious: the Kurt Warners, Drew Brees(es?) and anyone playing the Raiders of the world. Instead of that, I introduce you a guy that hasn't been talked about much....yet. That guy is Jason Hill. Who? Wide receiver for the 49ers, and he has an opportunity to showcase what he can bring to the table this week. He started to showcase that last week, hauling in seven catches for 84 yards in the 49ers offense led by Shaun Hill, who will continue to start this week and likely for the rest of the year. [Editor's note: A late stat change lowered Hill's totals to six catches for 82 yards. The missing catch went to Isaac Bruce.] Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson? Teetering towards irrelevancy. Josh Morgan and Arnaz Battle? Injured and not going to play. Dominique Zeigler? Need I say more? The Rams have been torched the past two games with Kurt Warner throwing all over them and the Jets putting up 40 by halftime. Tosten Burks Well....we're still waiting on this one. We've selected our Cabinet. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

News From Ball Street

Ball Street-Wall Street. It rhymes, see what we did there? Here we watch the stocks (ehh, ehh?) of players who are rising and falling, and decide whether you should target these shooting and sinking stars. Clever, I know. In the same way that you scan the free agent pool at this point in the season for guys who will give you reliable involvement down the stretch, it's time to make some deadline deals to stock up on high opportunity, high impact players. You need to search for guys you know will get a chance to succeed and pick a few who you think will follow through on that promise. Think Cliff Bars. You know they'll get the opportunity to produce and you are fairly confident that they will. Savor, or trash, the oat-nutty goodness of the following Ball Street stocks. Stock Up Willis McGahee/RB Baltimore—Twenty-five carries, 112 yards, and two touchdowns shoot McGahee back to fantasy prominence right? Well, the performance didn't seem to excite the Baltimore coach all too much. The Monday after Willis's big game, Jim Harbaugh reinforced that the Ravens plan to continue to vary their running back usage from week to week, all depending on the gameplan. McGahee hasn't shaken the time share yet. Course of Action: Sell Tennesee Titans Passing Offense—So this past weekend the Chicago Bears became the first NFL team to face the Titans with some remnant of resistance towards the two-headed Tennessee backfield touch tandem (alliteration jubilation!). The Bears made Jeff Fisher's crew beat them with the pass—and they did. However, not many teams can stop Chris Johnson and LenDale White, so don't expect the Titans offense to be spearheaded by the pass very often. For Pete's sake, Kerry Collins hasn't had a two-touchdown or a 200-yard game once the rest of this season. Course of Action: Sell Kevin Smith/RB Detroit—Did you really believe Rudi Johnson would be relevant in Detroit for very long? Over the past four weeks, Smith's touches have steadily increased in number and he's been making the most out of it. The only game over that stretch in which Kevin didn't score was against the Redskins, and he climaxed this past weekend with his first career 100-yard game, which he paired with another rushing touchdown, on 23 carries. Plus, there's this from Marinelli: "We wanted to get him a full boatload of runs and I think he showed some real spring and some real life." You can now add Smith to the overflowing group of stud rookie runners. Course of Action: Buy Stock Down Jake Delhomme/QB Carolina—Try your absolute hardest to ignore the 12.3 passer rating against the 2-7 Oakland Raiders and focus on the previous five weeks in which Delhomme had two scores on four different occasions. No, no, I said brush back the 72 yards and four interceptions on Sunday. Hey seuss, bury the 26% completion percentage! Can't do it? I doubt his owner can either. Which is why it's the perfect time to grab his, aside from Week Ten, solid production as a legitimate fantasy starter down the stretch for those in need of one. Course of Action: Buy Julius Jones/RB Seattle—Remember when Maurice Morris was a name worth knowing? Ya, I don't either. And his one carry this past week didn't stir up any old memories. Julius Conehead's 16 carries for 88 yards, a 5.5 average, are helping him emerge as the feature back in Seattle, and with Matt Hasselbeck returning, that's a decent situation to be in. Expect some solid production from here on out. Course of Action: Buy Bobby Engram/WR Seattle—Much like JuJo, Engram will enormously benefit from having Matt Hasselbeck back in the lineup. Koren Robinson can hardly be confused as a solid NFL starter let alone a fantasy starter, so don't let his decent output week 10 fool you. Engram is the guy you want. The epitomy of an underneath outlet, he will rack up the receptions, producing yet unearthed in 2008 fantasy gold during the playoffs. Course of Action: Buy
Keep going...

Running the Wire

Screwing League Mates Over By Stealing The Missing Pieces Of The Puzzle That They Need 101 You can feel it coming. Playoffs. Whether you're expecting to be looking in from the outside as you knife Steven Jackson in the lymph node or sitting pretty on the top of the standings, riding BenJarvus Green-Ellis (who seriously is in need of a nickname ... I say BenJGe, pronounced Benjee) to a No. 1 seed, you know the final draw is fast approaching. So you gotta prepare. And the most efficient place to gear up is on the wire. Now you are not looking for high potential guys, players who look like they could break out one week. It is about finding diamonds in the rough who are looking to be more involved in their offenses during the home stretch, rushers who are going to carry more of a load for their team, quarterbacks who are being leaned on by their team more, wideouts who are increasingly being targeted. Start mining folks, start mining. Gold Wire Pickups Shaun Hill/QB San Francisco—I liked him before his break out performance on ESPN, I swear. In his first start in J.T. O'Sullivan-replacement duty, he had a passer rating of 102.3 with one score and no picks. That was a good sign. Then on Monday Night he had two touchdowns in the first half before the Niners collapsed. And from the cliché argument logic department, Hill is the starter in a Mike Martz offense, and he seemingly has that role secured. Hill is a cheap option who I think can be a serviceable starter—yes, starter—in bigger leagues for the rest of the year. Mark Bradley/WR Kansas City—Tyler Thigpen has looked amazingly impressive since he's become the full time starter in KC. No, really. Six touchdowns in those three games and a 102.9 passer rating over that stretch to boot. If you ignore the three losses, one could argue that the Chiefs have definitely found their franchise QB. But I'm assuming Thigpen has already been added in most leagues, so I'll move to the next best part of my little KC fantasy mancrush, Mark Bradley. Over the course of Thigpen's starts, Bradley has led all Kansas City wide receivers in receptions. Bowe seems to be the focus of defenses, allowing Bradley to be the main target after Tony Gonzalez. Peyton Hillis/RB Denver—He's the only Broncos' running back who's still alive. You gotta take a flier on the 250-pound, 4.58-running white guy. Copper Wire Pickups Koren Robinson/WR Seattle—He's put up two straight games with four receptions and a touchdown, but with Matt Hasselbeck expected to be back Week 11 I just don't see him remaining the No. 1 option ahead of Bobby Engram. And the No. 2 guy in the Seahawks passing offense is not a guy you want on your fantasy team. Dustin Keller/TE New York (Jets)—The rookie caught six passes for 107 yards and a score on Sunday against the Rams, but his second highest yardage total on the year is 41. I suspect that the production was more due to Cotchery's shoulder injury holding him back than Keller emerging as Brett Favre's new favorite underneath option. Jason Hill/WR San Francisco—The main beneficiary of Shaun Hill's nice little primetime performance was sophomore Jason Hill who put up a nice little stat line of his own, seven catches and 84 yards. Hill, whom Mike Singletary and receivers coach Jerry Sullivan like, may have grabbed the No. 3 spot on the depth chart away from Arnaz Battle, but Isaac Bruce and Josh Morgan are still the only two San Fran pass catchers who really have much value. Chicken Wire Pickups Matt Spaeth/TE Pittsburgh—No. The 6'7'' tight end had six receptions for 53 yards against the Colts. Who cares? He never caught more than one pass in a game the rest of the year. No. Dantrell Savage/RB Kansas City—He led the Chiefs running game against the Chargers, with 44 yards on 12 carries. You gotta do more than that if you want some touches when LJ returns next week and Charles gets his health back. Good cop is over. You have the right and the responsibility to frickin ask us your fantasy questions. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

Weekend Recap: Week 10

I don't know about you, but I'm tired of it. I'm tired of Merril Hoge. It's the same every week. He makes the same corny joke every time Adrian Peterson breaks off a nice run. "They call him the cashier because he makes you pay." I think my head will explode if he makes that joke one more time. And how can we forget his obsession with saying the word "factor back". I swear, if there was a Merril Hoge dictionary, that'd be the only word in it. Not to mention his insane Steelers bias. That has its time and place, and I don't always mind someone giving props to my favorite team, but he goes a bit overboard if you ask me. Plus, he's insane. I know one thing fantasy footballers are tired of: poor fantasy advice. Now, you shouldn't take what anyone says and be totally committed to using it. But man, it stinks when someone's advice you've listened to backfires. We've all been there. I'll be giving you the correct fantasy scoop from Week 10 ... I hope. - Let's go back to Thursday, shall we? Kellen Winslow was the main beneficiary the change in quarterback (from Derek Anderson to Brady Quinn, for those who have been living under a rock the past week). Winslow had 10 receptions, 111 yards and hit paydirt twice. The rest of the Browns receivers had 13 receptions 128 yards and zero touchdowns. Kudos to those of you who bought low on Winslow. - Kevin Smith is officially the main back in Detroit. While he isn't the greatest option—after all, he plays for the Lions—the team seems committed to giving him the rock (23 carries on Sunday). It's still going to take a little while for Daunte Culpepper to get comfortable with the offense, so expect a more run-focused gameplan. The last time that sentence could be said by a sane person was ... never! - So much for Kerry Collins being just a "game manager." He fell just shy of 300 yards, something he wasn't done since Week 17 of 2005. I wouldn't get too eager though. Normally, the Titans will be able to run the ball. And normally, Collins won't eclipse the 230 yard mark. - The Seahawks offense showed small signs of life last week, and they should get a boost with the return of Deion Branch and Matt Hasselbeck, both of whom are currently expected to play Week 11. - Jake Delhomme threw four interceptions against Oakland and the Panthers still won by double-digits. Just sayin'. (Hey, I need a section exclaiming how awful the Raiders are to reach my quota.) - The Bills are on a downward spiral. I'd still start Marshawn Lynch, but wouldn't advise the same about Trent Edwards. We'll never leave you for the Jets. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.
Keep going...

Adam Schefter Gets Something Wrong, Willie Parker Did Not Tear His Labrum, Pigs in California Grow Wings

It rained all day today in San Diego. Two monks got into a fight near the tomb of Jesus Christ. And Adam Schefter reported false information about Willie Parker's injury situation. There is no doubt in my mind that the world is coming to an end. When Schefter blogged that Parker had a torn labrum, I noddingly took note. There was no reason for doubt. No sign of potential wrongness. But now Parker is denying the report, saying that no one has ever told him that he has a torn shoulder muscle. And he, along with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, believes that he will play again next week against the Chargers. Now that is cool and all, start FWP in all your leagues, he was a stud before the injury, if Mewelde Moore can roll then Parker should dominate, ya, ya all that jazz, but the real story here is Schefter's misinformation. Who does the world turn to for reliable NFL news now? Chris Mortensen? I can hear the screams already. John Clayton? Jared Allen laughs at that. Jay Glazer? A guy with a goatee is at the forefront of professional football reporting? May God reincarnate Peter Gammons as an NFL writer. Tomorrow. We'd love to hear about how we won the lottery in Haiti. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

A Lazy Man's Guide to Week Ten

Everything you need to know for week ten, consolidated in one spot for all Penn State fans out there too emotionally exhausted to navigate this blog on their own. News: Ryan Torain and Steven Jackson updates and complaints. Injury break down done by some other people who are still good even though they aren't us. Marques Colston finally all the way back from injury? Coaches think so. Darren McFadden isn't playing this week and could be done for the year. Baltimore will go with a three-way timeshare and split touches among Ray Rice, Le'Ron McClain, and Willis McGahee this weekend. Analsyis: Tim Hightower has risen, Reggie Wayne has fallen, and other players who have become more and less valuable this week. Kozora and Fein want a threesome with the Carolina Panthers + my bromances for week 10. A-Koz's start 'em, sit 'em. Ignore playoff schedules, says the stat guy. No, Daunte Culpepper is not all of a sudden a fantasy starter, and other shiz from the early Sunday game previews here. Sit Peyton Manning, and other can't miss blogness in the late sunday game previews over here. The Giants vs Eagles matchup is the game of the week, and other prime time game preview stuff in this area. That's it for the week folks. Enjoy the stench. We know how to solve the economic crisis. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...

Da Games: Early Sundayers

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup. A decently-sized bit of news occurred this week. The United States of America elected an African-American President. So now we're hip. Interestingly, another thing that happened was my reading this GQ article on making black friends. And the "re-segregation" of America. And modern day racism. There's multiple sides of every story. George tells Suzan that he can't go out tonight because he's gotta help Jerry move his friend, but then the next day Elaine sees Suzan at Bloomingdales and they get to talking, and Elaine says that that play she went to last night with George, Jerry, and Kramer was really fun, and Suzan comes back and slaps George. Or something. Everybody's got a different angle. Bringing a new one to the fantasy football media scene is us with our week ten game forecasts.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace RB— Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Julius Jones WR— Greg Camarillo, Ted Ginn Jr, Bobby Engram TE— Anthony Fasano, John Carlson Key Stat 2— Only two teams have given up more fantasy points to opposing QBs and WRs than the Seahawks. Our Take Tosten Burks— Miami should dominate this one. Hasselbeck isn't coming back most likely for another week and no one else on the Hawks is worth a start either. Play the Miami running backs and Greg Camarillo. Ginn still isn't being utilized consistently enough to have real fantasy value. Zach Fein— Don't play anyone on the Seahawks. Pennington, Brown, and Camarillo are start in standard leagues. Alex Kozora— Chad Pennington and Ronnie Brown are likely to be the only two people anyone would be confident in starting this week. The Seahawks are still Matt Hasselbeck-less, I expect them to still stall in that department.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Aaron Rodgers, Gus Ferrotte RB— Adrian Peterson, Ryan Grant WR— Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Bernard Berrian TE— Visanthe Shiancoe Key Stat 51.2— Since 2006, Donald Driver has had five 100-yard games. He's averaged only 51.2 receiving yards in the game following that 100-yarder. Our Take Tosten Burks— I like the Packers passing game here. Green Bay knows they can't run on the Vikes so they'll throw all day, especially with James Jones back (I think, last week he was declared inactive after practicing all week) helping them open up the offense even more. Zach Fein— Grant is barely a flex play in 12-team leagues. Berrian is a top-10 receiver this week and the best in this game, despite what Tosten put in the "Fantasy Impact Players" section. Don't play Frerotte or Driver either (see Key Stat). Alex Kozora— Ryan Grant owners: proceed with caution. The Vikings run defense is one of the best in the league. I like Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings against a middle-of-the pack Vikings pass defense.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Drew Brees, Matt Ryan RB— Michael Turner, Deuce McCallister WR— Roddy White, Marques Colston, Michael Jenkins, Lance Moore TE— Jeremy Shockey Key Stat 1.28— Since 2005 and updated through last week, there have been 1.28 times as more (actual) points scored by the Falcons and its opponents in the Georgia Dome than by the Falcons and its opponents on the road, the highest in the NFL for any one stadium. Our Take Tosten Burks— I'm thinking shootout. Start all the guys involved in either team's big passing offenses. Zach Fein— Start everyone. Jerious Norwood is worth a look in standard leagues as well. That's all I have to say. Alex Kozora— Matt Ryan is great at home, making him a decent play. Reggie Bush is still out so feel free to deploy Deuce McAllister.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Kerry Collins RB— Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, LenDale White WR— none TE— Bo Scaife Key Stat 1/4— Tennessee is ranked No. 1 in points allowed per game, and the Bears are ranked No. 4 in points score per game. Our Take Tosten Burks— Both teams have no passing game to speak of. Wrecks Gross-man kills any chance of Chicago capitalizing on the Titans weaker secondary. This matchup will have tons of running, but to not much avail. Expect a low scoring borefest. Zach Fein— Don't get cute. Bench Kerry Collins, Rex Grossman, and any wide receiver or tight end. Only Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and LenDale White (in that order) are worth playing. Alex Kozora— I'm not a fan of the Bears offense this week and with good reason. Rex Grossman against the Titans' defensive line = trouble. The Bears have an unusually poor pass defense, likely because they've been decimated by injuries, but I wouldn't start Kerry Collins unless you had to. He doesn't have enough of a ceiling to warrant doing so.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Sage Rosenfels, Joe Flacco RB— Steve Slaton, Ray Rice, Willis McGahee WR— Andre Johnson TE— Owen Daniels, Todd Heap Key Stat 9.4— The Ravens give up 9.4 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, lowest in the NFL. Our Take Tosten Burks— In a matchup between possibly the NFL's best defense and possibly the NFL's best offense I say... Andre Johnson is the only solid start. I can't trust that either of the two solid running games does anything against the two more than solid run defenses. Ray Rice could surprise though. Zach Fein— Contrary to what Tosten says, I'm starting many players this week: Slaton, McGahee and Rice; A.Johnson, Mason, and Walter; and Owen Daniels, each in order by position. I don't think it's a shootout, but I don't think it's a defensive showdown, either (expect a 20-17 game). Alex Kozoras— As usual Sage Rosenfels' main target will be Andre Johnson. Until Schaub returns, Owen Daniels' and Kevin Walter's values will take a hit.

St. Louis Rams at New York Jets

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Brett Favre, Marc Bulger RB— Thomas Jones, Antonio Pittman WR— Jerricho Cotchery, Donnie Avery, Laveraneus Coles, Torry Holt TE— none to speak of Key Stat(s) 5— St. Louis is in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to each quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. Our Take Tosten Burks— Who would've that that Torry Holt would be the fourth most valuable wide receiver in this game? He's still a solid start, as are all the pieces of both sides' passing games, but man has he disappointed. The grandpas of the league have fallen. It doesn't look like he or Marvin Harrison will ever be the same. Zach Fein— Man, did Donnie Avery disappoint me last week. So much for that. For this week, every quarterback and wideout listed above is worth a start. I'm not playing any St. Louis running back this week. Alex Kozora— No Steven Jackson? No Rams run game. Marc Bulger will have to air it out a good bit, and he's worth a start in my mind. I'm a fan of Donnie Avery this week, too. Darrelle Revis is an excellent cornerback, but he'll be focused on Torry Holt all game. That should result in a lot of targets for Avery, who's emerged as the team's No. 2 wide receiver.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Trent Edwards, Matt Cassell RB— Marshawn Lynch, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis WR— Randy Moss, Lee Evans, Wes Welker TE— Robert Royal Key Stat 179—Receiving yards by Lee Evans in his past six games against the Patriots, less than 30 per game. Our Take Tosten Burks— Gosh I love being able to talk about a guy named BenJarvus Green-Ellis in a relevant conversation. He and Faulk are both solid with Morris and Jordan still injured. Overall, I think I am most interested in this game, more so than any of the other early Sunday matchups. Zach Fein— If you have Lee Evans, you obviously have to start him, but I'm not too pleased with his matchup (see Key Stat). I'm not playing any of the QBs, though I do like Randy Moss and Wes Welker in this game. All the RBs are worth a start. Alex Kozora— The Bills secondary is in a heap of injuries as they will be without Ashton Youboty and Donte Witner. Randy Moss and Matt Cassel could have potential field days. Trent Edwards and Lee Evans are fringe starters.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Fantasy Impact Players QB— David Garrard RB— Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Smith, Rudi Johnson, Fred Taylor WR— Calvin Johnson, Matt Jones TE— zilch Key Stat 90— Rushing yards by Fred Taylor in his last five games. Eight running backs had 90 yards just last week. Our Take Tosten Burks— In a battle of two teams who are starting to finally hand the whole steering wheel to their young running backs and revoke their oldies' licenses, MoJo, Smith, the Jags passing game, and Calvin Johnson are all good starts. And—I wouldn't be surprised to see Culpepper have a halfway decent game. I have a feeling... Zach Fein— Oh, how the might have fallen. Fred Taylor is even worth owning in standard leagues. The Lions have allowed the top weekly wideouts on opposing teams to score 14.4 fantasy points per game. Look for Matt Jones to put up numbers similar to that this week. Calvin Johnson, MJD and David Garrard are the only other starts in this game. Alex Kozora— Daunte Culpepper is probably the most talented quarterback the Lions have had in a while, but he's only been with the team for a short time. Not worth a look this week. Fred Taylor has struggled this season, but I think this week he'll pick it up against Lions' run defense that has struggled equally.

Keep going...

Da Games: Prime Timers

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning RB— Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward WR— Plaxico Burress, Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson TE— Kevin Boss, Brent Celek Key Stat 21.7—Brian Westbrook's fantasy points per game in his last four games against the Giants. Our Take Tosten Burks— Let me start off by saying that NBC shanks ESPN in the left ventricle in terms of the games they broadcast. I mean seriously, Giants-Eagles or Niners-Cards? It's a joke. I'd also like to point out that in the first Philly game with all of the top three wideouts healthy, Curtis, Brown, and Jackson, Curtis emerged as the favorite target. Curtis's targets and Jackson's big play ability make them very solid options, but Brown looks to be the odd man out. Zach Fein— In this week's marquee matchup, both offenses should go crazy. Look for the G-Men to stay with only one loss in what should be a close game. Besides Brent Celek, everyone in the "Fantasy Impact Players" section is worth a start. Alex Kozora— Game of the week in the NFL. Lots of fantasy studs in this game; can't really sit anyone because of that. I would be hesitant if you were thinking about plugging in Kevin Curtis into your lineup. A potent Giants' pass rush could make the deep ball difficult to perform.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Kurt Warner, Shaun Hill RB— Frank Gore, Tim Hightower WR— Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Isaac Bruce TE— Vernon Davis Key Stat(s) 53.1—In the 10 Monday Night Football games thus far (there were two in Week 1), there have been an average of 53.1 points scored by both teams per game. Our Take Tosten Burks— Start every single Arizona Cardinal. Even Edge! ... Well, no. Don't start Edge. Or any Arizona tight ends. But everyone else should produce. San Fran's horrible. Also, Shaun Hill had a 102.3 passer rating in his first start. Just saying... Zach Fein— Kurt Warner, the two backs, Boldin, and Fitzgerald are all in the top-seven in their respective positions this week. Alex Kozora— The Cardinals are averaging 29 points per game. The 49ers are allowing 28 points per game. You do the math. Frank Gore is the only 49er worth starting this week; I'd have to see how Shaun Hill plays first before I start recommending him.
Keep going...